The DTC rollup opportunity

News emerged yesterday that Martin Sorrell's S4 Capital, which doesn't even have a website yet and apparently is spelled "S4", has bought Dutch agency MediaMonks in a $300 million deal, beating out his former company WPP. Notwithstanding whatever happened at WPP, which Sorrell left after 33 years amazingly successful years, props to a 73 year-old for getting back to market within 2 months of leaving the $20 billion revenue company he has built over decades. 

I also recently read about the amazing rise of Vista Equity Partners (WSJ paywall), the private equity firm that hypothesized that SaaS buy-outs could be leveraged well given the predictable revenue stream from software subscriptions.  

For followers of this blog, you know that I am fascinated with and actively investing the Cambrian explosion in DTC/DNVB. On the back of the news above, it struck me that this segment could support a rollup/buy-out strategy similar to the ones employed at WPP from 1983 onwards and at Vista Equity in the last decade.

Like in software, DTC ecommerce relies on many similar tactics and requires the same infrastructure: whether it is in marketing or distribution. While almost all new brands outsource much of this to e.g. branding agencies or 3PL logistics service providers, economies of scale would confer significant advantages in many of these functions. 

DNVB/DTC companies are almost all global by nature. The internet ignores most borders and the attractiveness of brands scales beyond their home markets - see e.g. Away or Glossier who are practically being pulled into Europe by consumer demand.

Further, scale and the ability to expand brands and businesses beyond verticals would increase the valuation multiples used to price these companies, which would lower capital costs. Scale also provides easier access to capital markets, which in turn would make it easier to finance the massive infrastructure investments necessary to compete with Amazon. 

Finally, building these businesses on the core of a subscription offering for consumable basics (think Dollar Shave Club, Lillydoo, others) would bring the cash flows necessary to introduce leverage - further reducing capital intensity for early-stage investors. 

Building such a "digital consumer brand" PE vehicle would not require massive investment - perhaps $250-500 million to build a $5-10B+ company - though it would still take "early-stage" guts, not unlike the first deals that WPP did. I wouldn't be surprised if someone tried it soon. The fragmented DTC market looks ripe for the picking.